England’s second game of the Six Nations sees them host France two years after they were condemned to their heaviest-ever home defeat by the same opponents.
France are considerable favourites to add to England’s increasingly grim recent record and Steve Borthwick’s team could need fortune on their side to claim a result.
Telegraph Sport’s rugby experts give their verdicts on how the contest will go at Twickenham.
England 22 France 21
Impossible as it seems, England can win this game. A lot rests on the shoulders of Fin Smith on his first start, but wise observers including Sir Ian McGeechan see him as a Lions contender. He looks equipped to be the complete fly-half and Marcus Smith, England’s best attacking threat, should benefit from his distribution from the back field. Added to the selection of Ollie Sleightholme on the wing, with Smith at full-back it is an all-in selection.
The simplicity of the game plan can bring the best out of the players, and there will be greater cohesion in a backline stacked with Northampton Saints. When they threw off the shackles at the death against Ireland, they scored two tries. They must embrace this mindset from the outset on Saturday. Wales were undone against France by the lack of ball-carrying power, but the addition of Tom Willis to the back row adds to England’s ballast.
If the England pack can hold their own, and the defensive line keep Dupont in check, there is a chance that France, without Romain Ntamack and the power of Thibaud Flament and Charles Ollivon, are not as connected as they can be.
England 24 France 38
Regardless of the circumstances, you seldom bet against England at Twickenham. The last time they desperately needed a Six Nations victory at home, against Ireland last year after defeat at Murrayfield, they conjured a late miracle via the boot of Marcus Smith. But this time I just cannot see a magic formula. Uini Antonio and Emmanuel Meafou bring monstrous power to the French scrum, while Damien Penaud has the capacity – as illustrated by the record 53-10 shellacking two years ago – to terrorise England for the full 80.
England 23 France 30
There are universes in which England win. In which the double Smith playmaker works a treat. Or Matthieu Jalibert has a meltdown. But right here, right now I cannot quite see England’s path to victory. Even before you can feast your eyes on the quality of France’s backline, I feel England will struggle to cope with the power of Les Bleus’ scrum and maul
England 19 France 30
Notwithstanding the events of two years ago, France do not have a great record at Twickenham. They believe there is an aura to the place and probably respect it a little too much. England could keep the scoreline tight for 50 minutes and be in with a fighting chance, but France just have too many threats from too many directions. They can blow you away up the middle with gargantuan forwards, squeeze you in the maul or skip round you on the outside. And when you’ve stopped all that, there’s Antoine Dupont to deal with.
England 26 France 25
This is a hunch based on a few factors. First off, and notwithstanding some supreme individuals such as Peato Mauvaka, Grégory Alldritt and Antoine Dupont, I do not think this France team is as good as Ireland without Thibaud Flament, Romain Ntamack and Charles Ollivon. Next, England are at home. There is a better balance to their bench and more experience to influence the final half-hour, which is where they have been faltering. The hosts will still need slices of luck – a 50-50 refereeing decision here, the bounce of a ball there – but are certainly due a couple of those. Fin Smith and Tom Willis are starting a Test match for the first time, yet have the attributes and the attitude to thrive.
England 19 France 29
France put over 40 on Wales without really moving past a seven out of 10, so are nicely warmed up for this. Not expecting it to get out of hand as the 53-10 two years ago, but this French side simply look further along in their development and have this guy called Antoine Dupont, keep an eye on him. Losing Romain Ntamack is a shame but what an alternative they have in Matthieu Jalibert. The selections of Fin Smith and Tom Willis are good steps forward but England need to build around them, not rip everything up if they’re well beaten. Of the two homes games coming up they absolutely must win one of them. Expect a tight first half before France grind England down.
